Business case for autonomous buses in public transport
Autonomous buses can play a key role in addressing pressures on public transport. When fully implemented, they can reduce operating costs by 25–35% and enable more frequent services, but only if investments are well timed and supported by clear public policy.
The challenge
Public transport operators are facing mounting pressure from staff shortages, rising costs, and increasing service expectations. While automation offers clear potential, uncertainty remains around the business case, particularly during intermediate implementation phases. Poorly designed or prolonged partial automation risks increasing costs rather than reducing them, making many authorities hesitant to commit at scale.
The approach
For the Dutch Working Group on Automated Buses, a study analysed the business case for autonomous public bus transport across different typical routes and phases of technology implementation. The analysis focused on the cost impacts of automation, staffing requirements, and the potential to increase service frequency and capacity.
The results are promising. Fully autonomous bus services can reduce operating costs by approximately 25–35%, mainly by lowering staff requirements. These savings can be used to offer more frequent services and increased capacity at limited additional cost, improving the overall performance of public transport systems.
At the same time, the study shows that timing and design are critical. Automation investments only pay off if full automation is achieved within a few years.
Prolonged or poorly designed partial automation phases are more likely to increase costs due to higher capital expenditure and operational complexity, without delivering corresponding benefits.
Most importantly, the study highlights the decisive role of governments. Public authorities need to set clear and consistent policies, act as market makers, and embed automation in concession and franchise models. By enabling scale through regulation and providing long-term certainty, governments can ensure that autonomous bus services move beyond pilots and deliver their full potential.
The experience of a Rebel
